中國對區域外力量投射型后勤的長期意向

關于在印度洋、南太平洋甚至南大西洋增設海外基地的猜測有很多。沒有很好的證據表明他們的意圖。人們必須從行為中推斷出意圖，但觀察到的事實符合范圍廣泛的假設。

中國抵御封鎖的能力

隨著烏克蘭沖突再次凸顯，中國領導人必須預料到一場戰爭會對中國的對外貿易造成巨大破壞。即使美軍沒有像解放軍作者假設的那樣實施正式的軍事封鎖，美國的大規模制裁和激烈的沖突，也會產生大致相同的結果。很難評估幾乎完全停止貿易，將如何影響在戰爭基礎上運作的大陸規模經濟體。中國的關鍵資源儲備有多大？他們面對敵人的攻擊時有多脆弱？如果嚴格的配給抵消了軍事消耗的大幅增長，中國戰時的消耗率會是多少？如果與俄羅斯保持友好，他們可以期望獲得多少物資？如果不保持友好，又有多少？經濟中斷會在什么時候影響解放軍的作戰能力？

國防動員制度將如何運作

中國建立了一個精心設計的機構，來動員民間資源以支持軍事行動。如果該系統按計劃運行，它將提供數千輛卡車、輪船和飛機及其機組人員、數萬名技術人員和機械師，以及數百萬噸物資來補充解放軍的后勤。我們才剛剛開始挖掘有關國防動員和民兵后勤網絡的大量公開信息。初步研究記錄了巨大的能力水平，以及該系統中存在許多未解決的挑戰。關于“國防動員是人民戰爭的秘密武器”這一觀點，它是大大增加了解放軍保障能力的秘密武器，還是會在真正的沖突中崩潰的、巨大的魯布-戈德堡裝置？目前的研究還沒有能力來做出任何有依據的判斷。這個問題是解放軍研究中最重要的未解問題之一。

建議

越來越多的論文和會議開始關注解放軍后勤，這點令人鼓舞，但這些努力尚未有質的突破。使后勤成為如此重要話題的關鍵問題仍未得到解答，因此尚不清楚解放軍今天能否在靠近中國的地區進行大規模戰爭，以及在可預見的未來是否能夠在遠離中國的地區打一場中等規模的戰爭。俄羅斯軍隊在烏克蘭出人意料的戰爭，凸顯了這個問題的重要性。因為許多人認為，世界上最強大的軍隊之一的表現嚴重不佳，部分原因是后勤不善。美國和中國自己都需要密切關注中國軍事后勤在類似壓力下的表現。

解放軍如何能很好地持續保障靠近中國的大規模沖突？這需要超越解放軍的建制后勤能力，就像中國人自己說的一樣，將其視為全社會的人民戰爭事業。這需要更深入地研究國防動員委員會、解放軍省級軍區（PMD）系統以及直接參與解放軍機動行動后勤保障的民兵力量。除了參與南海和東海任務的海上民兵部隊外，目前研究中國民兵的熱情還不高。與彈道導彈、戰斗機和兩棲機械化合成兵種旅相比，民兵規模龐大、分散、多樣化，而且老實說很乏味。如果要真正專業地研究后勤，那么觀察家們就不能忽視駐扎在省軍區系統和民兵部隊中的解放軍后勤的龐大組成部分。

幸運的是，中國為軍事行動動員民間支持的機構，就其性質而言，必須公開存在，且與之互動的經濟實體是可見的。因此對美國和其他國家來說，在一定程度上，這些信息也是可見的。問題不在于尋找數據，而在于如何處理大量低價值數據，以形成清晰的畫面。（江曉博/編譯 知遠戰略與防務研究所）

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